Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.103442 0.114494 0.125800 0.138201 0.151397 0.164991 0.180028
2025-02-02 0.084984 0.101477 0.119170 0.139440 0.161899 0.185907 0.213394
2025-02-09 0.072673 0.092840 0.115387 0.142170 0.172829 0.206554 0.246183
2025-02-16 0.061476 0.083756 0.109646 0.141417 0.178832 0.221002 0.271629
2025-02-23 0.056636 0.081349 0.110970 0.148257 0.193125 0.244615 0.307407
2025-03-02 0.052139 0.078707 0.111481 0.153693 0.205463 0.265811 0.340391
2025-03-09 0.044696 0.071471 0.105598 0.150683 0.207129 0.274033 0.357883
2025-03-16 0.037922 0.064387 0.099266 0.146520 0.206881 0.279569 0.371876
2025-03-23 0.035463 0.062950 0.100070 0.151271 0.217595 0.298340 0.401802
2025-03-30 0.032652 0.060713 0.099568 0.154140 0.225816 0.314017 0.428015
2025-04-06 0.030764 0.059628 0.100490 0.158785 0.236262 0.332466 0.457715
2025-04-13 0.027554 0.056227 0.097928 0.158541 0.240231 0.342737 0.477316
2025-04-20 0.027412 0.057793 0.102730 0.168801 0.258603 0.372003 0.521631
2025-04-27 0.024902 0.055356 0.101631 0.170909 0.266314 0.387965 0.549711
2025-05-04 0.022960 0.053661 0.101497 0.174301 0.275749 0.406229 0.580887
2025-05-11 0.020212 0.050274 0.098571 0.173536 0.279454 0.417059 0.602693
2025-05-18 0.019691 0.050786 0.101625 0.181411 0.295011 0.443412 0.644464
2025-05-25 0.018859 0.050626 0.103567 0.187644 0.308339 0.466935 0.682761
2025-06-01 0.016176 0.046635 0.099128 0.184207 0.308048 0.472383 0.697693
2025-06-08 0.013568 0.042412 0.093992 0.179444 0.305668 0.474889 0.708699
2025-06-15 0.012960 0.042232 0.095565 0.184883 0.317765 0.496798 0.745085
2025-06-22 0.012048 0.041290 0.095764 0.188164 0.326778 0.514608 0.776209
2025-06-29 0.011513 0.041117 0.097265 0.193470 0.338741 0.536478 0.812793